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JCU Brisbane Lecturer Published in the Springer Journal, Applied Intelligence

James Cook University Brisbane would like to extend our congratulations to Senior Lecturer, Dr Paul Darwen, whose research paper has been chosen for publication in the Springer Journal, Applied Intelligence.

In June, Dr Darwen travelled to the University of Artois in Arras, France to attend the 30th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems (IEA/AIE 2017). At the Conference, Dr Darwen submitted a research paper about the use of the Bayesian method to predict river floods. Dr Darwen’s research paper was peer-reviewed and he has been invited to submit a revised, extended version of his paper to be published in a special issue of the Springer Journal, Applied Intelligence.

Dr Darwen has provided the following summation about his research paper:

“Here at JCU Brisbane we run our own in-house cloud computing setup – at night and on weekends, all the lab PCs quietly turn themselves on, and make themselves available for downloading and running a program which I wrote in C++, for predicting river floods, using an approach to data mining called Bayesian model averaging. The program is massively parallel, i.e., it uses what processors are available as one big group.

Loosely speaking, Bayesian methods are all about fitting a model that makes predictions with probabilities, rather than simple yes/no predictions.  Bayesian model averaging uses many such models (in our case, millions of them) to explore a range of possible solutions, and then they all vote.  Each model’s vote is weighted by the model’s probability of being correct, given the data.  It’s an approach that has a lot of promise, but it uses colossal amounts of computer time, which we have here at JCU Brisbane thanks to our in-house cloud computing.

One group of results looked at predicting floods of the Warrego River, an intermittent river that flows in western Queensland, which spends most of its time either in flood, or as a string of stagnant pools.  Being able to better predict which state it will be in, would be a great help to the graziers that rely on a good flow.

I’d like to acknowledge the work of Matthew Fuller for technical support in using the lab PCs to do all of this, and for the JCU Brisbane campus in its ongoing support of research.”

JCU Brisbane is proud to have such an established and enthusiastic academic contributing to the education of our postgraduate students.

To read Dr Darwen’s conference paper, please click here. If you are using a JCU computer, you will have access to download the PDF document.




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